Modernization: Theories and Facts

Interpretations of Lipset

• endogenous explanation/modernization theory: democratization is the final stage of the larger process of development/modernization (industrialization => urbanization => education => communication => mobilization => political incorporation => democracy)
• but data doesn't support causal power of economic development in causing transitions from dictatorships to democracies => most dictatorships developed over long time eventually became democracies but no consistent level of income, no evidence that it's not due to other factors
• dictatorship instability follows bell curve: stable at low incomes, unstable at middle, stable above $6K cutoff
• exogenous explanation: democratization can happen regardless of economic development, but much more likely to survive when developed
• no democracy (out of 32) ever fell in country with per capita income higher than $6,055
• 39/69 poorer democracies did fall
• Lipset's explanations about sustainability of democracy re: development are supported
• income matters independently of education in sustaining democracy
• rapid growth or growth in general doesn't threaten democracies
• among countries independent after 1950
• democracies more stable with development, but:
• dictatorships as stable when wealthy as poor (above and below $2K gdp/capita)
• promise of democratization via development is thus bad

conclusions

• emergence of democracy is not deterministic based on economic conditions: it's based on specific circumstances and actors, and sustained based on economic conditions
• criticize US foreign policy of supporting dictators for the sake of development
• dictators better for development than democracies => but development eventually brings about democracies => so better to support dictatorships in the meantime
• but "development eventually brings about democracies" is faulty so whole thing is faulty
• should support democracies period, not roundabout